As we look to the future of forestry – particularly when it comes to the wildfire crisis – one big question looms: does climate change or forest management have a greater impact on fire?
In 2022 a group of scientists analyzed and modeled how how various factors, such as climate and management practices, influence wildfire behavior and forest carbon dynamics. Climate was found to be the primary driver of total area burned by wildfires, with little variation observed among different management scenarios. However, the extent of high-intensity fires (how much energy is produced by a fire) was influenced by both climate and management practices. Intensive management strategies, such as mechanical treatments, limited the area burned at high intensity compared to less intensive approaches.
In terms of landscape carbon density, simulations projected an increase over time due to forest recovery from historical logging. However, the rate of carbon sequestration varied depending on management practices and climate projections. While intensive mechanical treatments initially led to a decline in carbon density, they ultimately resulted in higher rates of carbon sequestration by reducing the likelihood of high-severity (the amount of biomass consumed) fires.
Using variance decomposition analysis to understand the contribution of different factors to the overall variability or change observed in a system revealed that both climate and management significantly influenced landscape carbon density, total area burned, and area burned at high intensity. However, management had a greater impact on carbon density, whereas climate played a larger role in total area burned by wildfires. The interaction between climate and management introduced additional uncertainty, particularly regarding the stochastic nature of wildfires.
Management efforts were found to be more effective in reducing the area burned at high intensity when a larger proportion of the landscape was treated. However, the effectiveness of management declined over time, highlighting the need for increased investment and activity to maintain desirable forest conditions. Fuel treatments, such as thinning, were effective at reducing fire intensity at landscape scales when applied over a large area.
Overall, while uncertainty about future forest conditions persists, management plays a crucial role in shaping the landscape and mitigating the impacts of climate change on wildfires. New approaches and intensified efforts may be necessary to adapt to changing climate conditions and maintain forest health in the face of increasing wildfire risk.